03.13.17 Storm stronger + Track slightly closer = More snow and wind
All signs now point conclusively to a major snow event for all of Upstate... and Blizzard conditions are now likely for parts of Upstate.
Water vapor loops and surface weather analysis pointing towards the storm already developing off the coast of Cape Hatteras. The two separate upper level storms, one over the Great Lakes, the other over the Southeast US, now look to completely "phase" in or become one giant storm. The wind field and precip fields will hit a larger area and this is likely to be a "major" storm by most anyone's definition. Yes there is the potential little things will happen in some areas (as they usually do) that may cut down on accums in a few places... but most of Upstate will be busy with this one.
Snow has already moved close to WNY and will start there later this evening... precip over Virginia will make it to Upstate NY between midnight and sunrise. Heaviest precip overnight will be WNY, Downstate NY and the Catskills. Morning drive will become increasingly worse for all Upstate Cities. Conditions go downhill quick during the morning hours as snow and wind increase.
Heaviest part of the snow and wind will be from Noon Tuesday through Midnight. This is when travel will be at its worst. Of particular concern is the Southern Tier (Binghamton Area), Catskills, Hudson Valley/Downstate NY and now the Capital Region. We think heavy snows and near blizzard conditions are now likely for Albany/Schenectady/Troy.
Snows will taper off but still be around Wednesday AM off the south shores of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie from Fredonia to Buffalo to Rochester, to Oswego and Syracuse. In these areas mentioned, a few more inches may be added to totals for lake enhancement. Upper low spinning overhead Upstate overnight into Wednesday AM will make sure light to moderate snows stay around east of I-81 all the way into New England.
The revised snowfall map is as follows:
It's rare that we do this, but we must. As we said before this isn't the Blizzard of '93... but it's still going to be a good one. If you are in a county under Blizzard Warning, we highly encourage you to get what you need tonight and hunker down until Wednesday. Travel in these conditions, even with emergency preparedness kits is not a good idea. The rest of Upstate NY, it's still going to be a hearty storm. Be smart... don't travel in the heart of this unless you have to go to the hospital or something that important...
WHAT ABOUT RIDING
Once this leaves, it looks like several days to a week or two for folks to ride around. Even if you've put things away after the big meltdown last month... might be worth it to break it out again. For what you invest in the sport you might just as well. Double check with clubs, help out where you can, obey signs and gates if trails have been closed off and not reopened.
Be safe out there... we'll pass along riding info on the FB side. Thanks...