It has been so warm across Upstate NY the past several days. Near record warmth over the past two days. Things are about to change. It was only a matter of time.
THE SHORT TERM
Rain and thunderstorms will overspread the state from west to east during the day today. Especially this afternoon. Tonight expect rain and thunderstorms everywhere as our strong cold front comes through tonight and into Wednesday morning.
Behind this front the 80s are GONE. If anything, say hello to BELOW FREEZING AIR. This time it comes down not just Wednesday night but especially Thursday night. During the day on Thursday it will stay in the 50s. On Friday it will rise above 60, but just barely in the lower elevations. Heading into Columbus Day Weekend it starts off seasonable.
MEDIUM RANGE
Yet another cold front comes in late next week. This one should be sometime between the 16th and the 18th. The coldest air of the season follows. Signals are for 20s everywhere to start with 40s during the day. And the first snowflakes of the season are being shown. These are not just being shown over the Adirondacks and the Tug Hill but also downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Welcome to what could be the first chance of lake effect snows of the 2025-26 season! For a few days anyway.
It would not be the earliest we have ever seen this in Upstate NY, but it will be one of the earlier times we have seen this. It’s not 1987, 1988, 2000, or anything like that early. But certainly 2013 comes to mind as a strong analog year for this weather pattern and the setups going into it.
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Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
October 7, 2025
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