We have predicted this first true blast of “winter” for most of Upstate NY for several days now. We have waited, some would argue longer than we needed to, but we now feel comfortable with the forecast. Basically the closer you are to the Canadian Border, the better chance you will see accumulating snows tomorrow and tomorrow night. The farther away you get, especially towards the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks it becomes a Monday PM to Tuesday PM deal. It warms just enough by Wednesday to make this mainly a higher elevation event.
Hello Upstate Snow Nation! Finally I get to do SOME GRAPHICS that have more than a Trace to 2″ on them! In some cases, a lot more than that! So what exactly will happen here? Let’s go to the graphics and I will tell you:
SUNDAY
Snow develops mainly near the Canadian Border from along Lake Erie, through the Buffalo area, to Watertown and Massena. Stretch much farther to the east and it’s just rain. At least for now with the warm southerly winds out ahead of it pushing temperatures well into the 40s with lower elevation locations breaking 50 for a limited time only!
SUNDAY NIGHT
Our strengthening low pressure moves past Upstate NY and off to the North. This may cause some changes to the precipitation for a time but eventually as the northwest winds get going behind the low, the cold air rushes in, and it changes to all snow. Will it get super cold? NOPE! The super cold is heading due south from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley, then all the way to the Gulf Coast! It’s going more south and east, hence why we don’t changeover as fast.
MONDAY
Snow tapers to snow showers in the morning. It’s windy. Temperatures are in the 30s all day with below freezing all day at the higher elevations. Over the course of the afternoon and into the evening, the lake effect snow will begin to develop. There will be some off of Lake Erie, but much more by far will be off of Lake Ontario.
TUESDAY
If there is a day you plan to get hit with heavy lake effect snows, Veteran’s Day is your day. Best chance is downwind of Lake Ontario, particularly to the north of the Mohawk Valley. Winds at this time seem to be varying from a 270 to a 290 direction, which will keep most all of this north of the Thruway. Depending on who gets this the most, several inches are possible, if not over a foot! Remember, it’s November! Though it doesn’t happen every single year this early in the year, we are now in the acceptable range for lake effect snow. And for it to pile up!
AFTER THAT
Wednesday and beyond will continue to be unsettled and cooler than normal. But since temperatures will climb just enough as the deep trough over the eastern US weakens, it will lead to scattered rain showers in the lower elevations with snow showers and additional accumulations mainly reserved for the higher elevations.
It may get back to at or above normal for a brief time later in November, but remember that if it does, it will not be for long. Lots of trends in the medium and long range continue to point towards at to below normal temperatures with at to above normal snowfall. Not top 5 records here, but enough! As much if not more than last year. And not all of it in 60 days either!
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