I have updated the snowfall amounts and the totals across Upstate NY. Some of those numbers in a few areas did go down, however most of the numbers WENT UP. The lake effect snow is looking solid on all of the models, we are in the short range, high resolution models, and all are in agreement it will definitely snow! The question is: How much specifically and where? This is always the danger and the challenge of doing this site for well over a decade. Some days I nail it. Other times I get nailed! Most of the time it works out good enough to where following me turns out to be a good thing.
Here is my latest projection with the higher amounts in the northern suburbs of Buffalo, north of the Thruway through the Rochester area, and especially between Rochester and Montgomery County between Utica and Albany. Even in Eastern NY in the Capital Region, I have just enough painted in. Could very well be a trace, however, it would not surprise me if Albany got its first inch on Veteran’s Day. Or Wednesday before changing to rain later in the afternoon and evening.
Snow continues across parts of Upstate NY tonight. With winds varying between a 270 and a 310 wind direction, the map has expanded. The snowfall should accumulate with temperatures in the 20s, well below freezing, and enough to coat everything out there.
Scattered snow showers with heavier lake effect in spots. This is the first wave of snow to roll through the region. Since temperatures will be near to below freezing, even at the lower elevations, a dusting to an inch or two is likely across a good portion of the state.
It calms down for some hours Tuesday evening. But wait! A second wave of heavier lake effect snows along with general snows begin to move through Upstate NY. This will happen all the way from Buffalo to Albany and points in between overnight and into Wednesday. Even in the lower elevation locations, there should be some accumulations. Expect slick conditions for the commute Wednesday morning.
The snow will be strong first thing in the morning, however, this is when the temperatures become much more of a factor, especially in the lower elevations. During the day Wednesday as temperatures rise, expect snow to change to rain in the lower elevations, while it stays snow higher up. This is mainly a Wednesday Afternoon event
As Wednesday PM turns to Thursday and Friday, it will be warmer with rain in most locations except the elevations of the Adirondacks and Catskills, mainly above where we motor most. For the most part, this first winter system of the year will be over.
One more time with the accumulation forecast for Upstate NY over the next 48 hours from publish time (noon Monday 11/10) to Wednesday AM 11/12
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