I have tweaked the forecast for a second time in the last 48 hours. This is rare for me. You don’t see this often. But given the speed at which the winds are coming in this morning, especially with WIND ADVISORIES across a good part of the state, and with it going to snow as I am writing this morning, I am considering this event ahead of schedule. And even though this event should be all but over by sunrise Tuesday morning, I am expecting heavy snow at times in areas getting it like off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. In these areas, I did increase amounts in Chautauqua County, and in the hills south of Syracuse and Utica. Pretty much left if the same up north with a slight uptick on the north facing slopes of the Tug.
It should be all snow in the next few hours. And it will be windy! Look for widespread gusts in the 30 to 50 MPH range this afternoon and this evening. This should help to carry the lake effect snow farther and better inland.
Tonight the winds will die down but it will not end right away. It will still be breezy tonight with winds 20-30 MPH, and higher gusts especially in the evening. As you see above, the snowfall map is lit up! South and west of Buffalo getting hit. Between Rochester and Utica to points south into the Southern Tier and the Catskills getting hit. The northern Tug Hill and especially the northern and western Adirondacks getting hit the most. The eastern and southern Adirondacks this time will be in the “snow shadow” and should receive little to none.
Snow continues tomorrow morning across Chautauqua County especially, but also into some of the neighboring counties in Western NY and Western PA. The lake effect will not be as much across Central NY but there will still be some. By far the best snows will be across northern NY with the upslope snows continuing.
Finally on Monday Night the winds begin to die down. The lake effect south and west of Buffalo, over Central NY, and finally the upslope snow event over parts of Norther NY begins to wrap up. This should all be done by Tuesday morning.
So this is the forecast. Ready. Set. Go! Please remember you can keep me updated on snowfall totals as the event ends later Monday and especially Tuesday morning via Upstate Snow or you can just email me at richlupia@gmail.com
If you would like to advertise on the site, reach out anytime!
VENMO: @Zman291
CASH APP: #ZACKLUPIA
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
November 16, 2025
Please thank our advertisers on Upstate Snow!
Business Sponsorship
Ohio Ridge Riders
Enjem’s Flooring America
ilsnow.com
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Southern Tug Hill Snow-Riders
Business Member
John Schoff Polaris Memorial Ride
Personal Member
Eric Vilovchik
Charles A. Klesse Sr.
