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Uh oh is the word or phrase of the day. There is no getting around this. There may have been some days ago, but now that we are within 60 hours of this WARM STORM coming blasting through Upstate NY with lots of rain and temperatures in the 40s (maybe 50+ in some areas) along with possible THUNDERSTORMS??? Before we get right back to winter as scheduled. So basically RIDE NOW AND RIDE IF YOU CAN! Today is seriously the last day you will have a chance to. Tomorrow the winds pick up, the temperatures soar and melting begins in earnest. Then the rains and winds move through Thursday Night and Friday Morning before winds, cold and the snow return. It will get back at least somewhat to winter this weekend and into the days leading up to Christmas.

BOTTOM LINE: If you have 10″ or less of snow pack, particularly if it is 6″ or less of snow pack, after today, you had better sit this one out. If you have more than 10″ of snow pack, which a lot of our open areas do, there will still be plenty of riding available after this storm. After all that:

We have one brief round of snow showers coming this afternoon as a weak front passes by. This will have very limited moisture and WAA after that so don’t expect more than a dusting, to locally an inch or two at the absolute most.

Tomorrow afternoon it turns WARM AND WINDY. At least by Upstate NY standards. Especially this month. It will definitely be the warmest day of the month so far with highs in the 40s and wind gusts into the 40s (miles per hour) over the hills especially. This begins the snowmelt for sure!

RAIN! It comes in fast Thursday Night and by 6 AM is already DONE for folks in Western NY. I guess if you wanted a fast moving storm, you have it, but unfortunately steady rains will come with it. In the yellows some heavy downpours along with a few claps of thunder not out of the question. Don’t be surprised if you hear a BOOM early Friday Morning. Total rain amounts I am still estimating 1/2 to 1 inch from I-81 eastbound, 1/4 to 1/2 over Western NY, with 1 to 1.5 inches over the Adirondacks and Tug Hill. Not record amounts but definitely enough to do damage.

By Friday Afternoon, the storm is over and we have breezy conditions developing on the back side of the storm as temperatures fall from the 40s, through the 30s, and below freezing shortly after this point. Snow showers develop, especially west of I-81 with some lake effect or lake enhancement.

Really the better chance for snow showers with lake effect snow will be over the weekend, particularly on Sunday with our next clipper coming on through and snow showers with lake effect in that. Some accumulations will be there, but it will tend to be more localized than widespread.

Heading through the week of Christmas at least things are looking more and more like normal. The way above normal stuff is confined more towards the Ohio and the Virginia’s and points south and west of there. It doesn’t look like as tight of a gradient of the BATTLE ZONE, but still, the chances are increasing that if you survive the storm tomorrow night and into Friday Morning, AND YOU STILL HAVE SNOW AFTER THAT, the chances are HIGH you will be the recipient of a WHITE CHRISTMAS for the first time in many years!