The Evening Blog is brough to you by the Missing Link Snowmobile Club of Carthage, NY, on the northern slopes of the Tug Hill. The club reminds everyone to stay on the marked trail. They have had several landowners voice concern over this and it could cause us to lose these trails! Loss of just one trail could affect access to our entire trail system. Use caution when riding with low snow conditions. Be alert for obstacles in the trail and ride right! The trail systems connect to Barnes Corners, Snow Valley and Long Pond. For more information CLICK HERE.

We were running way behind schedule today. Don’t even ask! But we decided to carry on. Once we got to the forecast charts and looking at what was going on around the nation, particularly in the Northeast, Great Lakes and the Northern Plains we went !!! OH MY!!!

Blizzard warnings. Extreme cold. Wind advisories. Oh my word. It’s not the worst I have ever seen the weather, particularly during the holidays, but it is by far MUCH WORSE THAN NORMAL. If you happen to be anywhere in Upstate NY (or somewhere else in the mess of this), PLEASE TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY! It’s going to be a ride.

7 PM TONIGHT
The storm is rolling through Western NY as a rain soaker. For those watching the Buffalo/Philadelphia game, expect the Josh Allen/Jalen Hurts pre-Super Bowl to be one heck of a ride! Tons of rain! Not a ton of wind. Yet. That’s tomorrow’s challenge for Buffalo and WNY. As well as a lot of the state.

To the east of I-81, the precipitation arrives but because of the colder air that is in place, it starts off as FREEZING RAIN east of I-81 especially east of NY-12 between Watertown, Utica, and Binghamton. A few tenths of an inch of ice are expected, especially in colder pockets before this turns to all rain.

6 AM TOMORROW MORNING
This is the warmest part of the storm. Rain everywhere with just a few areas of Eastern NY into Western New England clinging on to freezing rain before changing to rain. For several hours, expect temperature in the 30s and 40s, WELL ABOVE FREEZING, with lots of rain. The rains will melt the snows down. Pretty much west of I-81, you are going back to GROUND ZERO. East of I-81, it’s another attack of the pack. Not all of it. But a bunch of it.

3 PM TOMORROW AFTERNOON
Hellooooooo Howlinggggggg Windddddd! Behind this front, the wind will rip and roar. Period. End of story. Storm force gusts over 50 MPH are imminent especially across counties already highlighted with high wind warnings. In those counties, 60-75 MPH winds would be tops, so basically, up to Hurricane Force. Across the rest of Upstate NY with wind advisories in effect, expect winds of 40-60 MPH at their worst. There will definitely be power disruptions Monday afternoon, into Monday night and Tuesday morning, especially for the areas with the worst wind.

10PM MONDAY
Oh, yeah, right, the temperatures! They fall FAST! From 40s to 20s in just 3 to 6 hours. Over 12 hours, a 30+ degree temperature swing. We wake up Tuesday Morning in the single digits and teens. While the worst of the wind will be behind us by that point: THE LAKE EFFECT LIES AHEAD OF US! And there will definitely be a lot of it.

The Lake Effect is getting going not just Tuesday during the day but into Tuesday Night and into Wednesday Morning (New Year’s Eve AM). It doesn’t get to be as bad on Wednesday as Tuesday’s snow, but we will still have some of it.

OK so what am I doing here? I am only putting out snowfall in 24-36 hour periods at this point. From when it changes over Monday PM through Wednesday Morning (New Year’s Eve) at 7 AM. This is when I feel the most confident on with snowfall now. And I am telling you, my confidence is not as high as previous events. Especially with how stout the wind is Monday heading into the first half of Tuesday.

BOTTOM LINE
Enjoy the break from winter while you can. It will come ROARING back tomorrow for Monday. Literally. Enjoy the second half of the Bills game (this is being published at HALFTIME). We are down but not out. You know the football season. You know snowmobiling. Good days and bad days. Make the least of the bad. Make the most of the good!