Tuesday, 17 February 2026 / Published in Weather

The Morning Blog 02.17.26

The Morning Blog is brought to you by Frontier Sno Riders of Schoharie, Albany, Schenectady and Montgomery Counties. This club maintains the trails on the southern and western flanks of the Capital Region with high hills, deep valleys, and scenic landscapes. Over 80 miles worth of trails on a section of land that doesn’t get as much use out of the year as others do because of the warmer temperatures and lack of lake effect snow. So outside of Nor’easter and clipper systems, you are out. For more information on the club PLEASE CLICK HERE.

We have had changes to the snow pack and snow cover after sunshine and temperatures in the high 30s to mid 40s yesterday depending where in the state you were. We have already started to see trail closings west of I-81 and south of I-90. In fact, a lot of them. You can see the view over Cayuga Lake towards Ithaca. The snow is getting thin!

Today will be a similar day with some sunshine and temperatures in the upper 30’s to mid 40’s across the state. Overnight lows tonight will not drop that much below freezing with increasing clouds moving on in. And then there is Wednesday.

Yep. Wednesday. This is the day that will separate the men from the boys. For areas south of the Thruway, especially west of I-81, you can pretty much FUGEDABOUDIT! It will rain. It will be above freezing. Your snow pack will continue to melt. In areas with little snow pack left, we will start to see the first areas in New York State since the January 25th Nor’easter actually NOT be covered in snow. 🙁

Wednesday Night this storm will continue with the great mix over the entire state. Where exactly this will break down? I have no idea. Even at 24 hours away. Or less. Yes I have some idea but nowhere near 100% certainty on it. I could be 50-100 miles off. If I am that far, it could mean most of the state!

Thursday as this storm moves out clouds give way to sunshine. Temperatures will peak back up above freezing again, 35-40 in the higher elevations, 40 or above in the cities and the lower elevations.

Friday the next system moves in with rain and snow. This system is coming in as another mixed bag. It’s not coming in as heavily as tomorrow’s system, but still coming in with a little bit of everything.

This weekend the colder air takes over and it becomes a snow game. Again. Temperatures go back to near freezing if not slightly below in the lower elevations. In the higher elevations and especially north of the Thruway, 20s will rule and so will snow showers and possibly, maybe, the return of lake effect?

Looking ahead I don’t see any major changes next week (normal) or heading into the first week of March (trending above normal). Still have plenty of time to watch.

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