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The Morning Blog 10.15.26

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Upstate Weather
Thursday, 15 October 2026 / Published in Weather

The Morning Blog 10.15.26

GOOD MORNING UPSTATE SNOW NATION! We have received a lot of hits and support over the last 24 hours. THANK YOU FOR IT! We also have some newer forecast data in over the last 24 hours that we wanted to share.

WHAT IS WORKING SO FAR
All areas north of the Thruway we are holding steady on. The last several model runs continue to indicate rain changing to snow here Friday Night and into Saturday Morning. In terms of the accumulations and the elevations it will be falling at, we feel good about along and north of the Thruway forecast for now.


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WHAT IS NOT WORKING SO FAR
The last 3-4 runs of the computers have produced less rain and snowfall across the Southern Tier, Finger Lakes and the Catskills. This is making us wonder is this just the models playing games with us or are they locking into a trend in their high resolution data sets that were not seen as well at first. I expected some light accumulations in the highest elevations of the Southern Tier and the Catskills. That is probably looking less likely now. So in southern areas that are Dusting to 1″ which are your higher elevation locations south of the Thruway, and your 1-3 inch in the highest elevations of the Southern Tier and the Catskills, be aware these numbers could fall down or potentially be totally dropped. We still have time and several more model runs before this storm gets here later tomorrow. We just figured we would give you the heads up now.

BOTTOM LINE
If you are along and north of the Thruway, your forecast is looking good. The part of the state I am concerned about is the southern portion. Stay tuned for more.

WELCOME BACK TO THE SCHOFF FAMILY!
They rejoined Upstate Snow yesterday. Their memorial ride in the Rome area the second weekend in January is kind of a catch and catch can event. Some years work better than others. But this year is their 10th year. Thank you for your sponsorship of the event! And we will also have whatever event is planned for January 2028, as their sponsorship will continue until October 14, 2027.

Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow

October 15, 2026

PLEASE THANK OUR SPONSORS FOR THE 2026-27 SEASON!
Business Sponsors
Enjem’s Flooring America
Ohio Ridge Riders
ILSNOW.COM

Business Member
John Schoff Memorial Vintage Ride – January 9, 2027

Personal Member
Charles A. Klesse Sr.

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