OH BOY. HERE WE GO AGAIN! AFTER SEEING A SOMEWHAT PROMISING EARLY SEASON SNOWFALL NEARLY 2 WEEKS AGO UP IN THE ADIRONDACKS, THE THREAT FOR PRACTICALLY ANYTHING WINTER, OR EVEN WITH PRECIPITATION, IS GONE! FOR NOW…
THESE STATISTICS ARE SPECIFICALLY FOR GRIFFISS AIRFIELD IN ROME. ON OCTOBER 16TH, THEY GOT NEARLY 2/3 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. ABSOLUTE ZERO SINCE. TODAY IS DAY 13. TODAY IS A GREAT LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 FOR A LOT OF UPSTATE NEW YORK. THAT IS ASSUMING YOU WANT THAT KIND OF WEATHER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING. IF WE SOMEHOW MAKE IT TO WHERE AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN IS NOT RECORDED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, THAT WILL PUT AT LEAST ROME/GRIFFISS INTO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. THE ALL TIME RECORD SINCE GRIFFISS WAS ESTABLISHED AS A WEATHER SITE IN 1945 IS 19 DAYS. THAT HAPPENED BACK IN 1963. WE COME CLOSE TO THAT IF WE GET BY TONIGHT WITHOUT ANY RAIN.
Wow I didn’t think we would be going into crazy things like this, but this goes to show you just how jammed up our atmosphere has become. The second half of October has been BONE DRY over most of the eastern US. It is way more than just Upstate NY. It goes deep into the Southeast, where I am at, as well.
WHAT CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO NOVEMBER?
Halloween was supposed to be the big pattern flip from dry to pouring rain spreading across the eastern US. As we have gotten closer and the high resolution models have taken hold, Halloween itself is looking a lot more safe as of today. From Upstate NY down here to where we are, it is looking good. Along and west of the Mississippi… NOT SO MUCH!
So what happens to temperatures? We stay ABOVE NORMAL for the next 2 weeks. Again. Just like most years out of the last 20, especially this decade. We just cannot break down this weather pattern. It seems like Super El Nino will win the battle and keep most of the nation warm BUT…
THE POLAR VORTEX
This has caught on to news reports in recent days. Why? There are indications the vortex is slowing down and will undergo a split, much earlier than at any point since it was measured starting in the 1950’s. You should read the well laid out article Gizmodo did on this earlier this week:
https://gizmodo.com/it-looks-like-the-polar-vortex-is-about-to-do-something-unprecedented-2000831218
BOTTOM LINE
The first half of November will be warm and it will eventually turn wet. Especially here in Upstate NY, and across neighboring states. The BIG QUESTION becomes what happens to the Polar Vortex and winter AFTER this very warm first half of November? From Thanksgiving into December, which is the start of the snowmobile season for the North Country and Adirondacks, things can turn in a hurry. If it doesn’t change, could it be 68 on Christmas Eve here again?
Or if it does change, do we suddenly do a flip into a 1997/98 scenario to where the storms go absolutely bonkers and do tremendous damage to our lives and infrastructure for a generation? All we can say is this: TIME WILL TELL!
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
October 29, 2026
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