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Hello! I wanted to do a deeper dive into the colder air that will be coming back into Upstate NY tomorrow evening. This is clearly becoming the turning point to where the THAW cycles are over and the WINTER cycles of fun will continue to roll on for the foreseeable future. There are several different map projections I would like to show. Since this event goes through Thursday, we will take the full 60 hours on the NAM 3K, the NAM, the ECMWF and the GFS:

NAM 3K

NAM

ECMWF

GFS

As you can see between these four possible solutions, especially considering we are in a much closer time period to the event happening, we have a lot more questions that answers. Lower elevations with the warm air. How much cold air does the lake effect produce? Does the lake effect get time to get going? If it does, will it stay for long? All of these questions can have a dramatic impact on the forecast. You know we shoot straight and we will be wrong some ways and in some times, but we will always shoot straight with you. So with that, our straight shot on this:

It is what it is. Will there be sunshine on Friday? Yes! Believe it or not a partly to mostly sunny sky is forecasted for the state of NY on Friday. It’s a rarity, but it does happen and it does look believable. This should hopefully improve conditions, especially where riding is happening at this time. There will still be a lot of the state out of the ballgame come the MLK Weekend, but nearly everyone will be able to get in next week and beyond. If you would like to know more about the medium and long range for our areas, PLEASE CLICK HERE for more.