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The weather picture is starting to become clearer now. At first it was looking like it would lake effect snow like crazy then get dang cold, then stay dry. That is no longer the case. The pattern has shifted to the point to where WINTER STORM WATCHES are up for Sunday and Monday for a good portion of Upstate NY already! It will be definitely much colder with this snowfall. The closest analog I can personally give to this storm: ARCTIC STORM 1999 when I was working at WKTV as Morning Meteorologist. We got about a foot of snow with temperatures not much above zero. And in this case, 27 years later, we are looking at a distinct possibility of a repeat event!

BUT FIRST

More snow downwind of the lakes. Especially Ontario. With the Lake Erie temperatures where they are now, and with the ice beginning to get thicker, this cold blast coming this weekend after this lake effect event should mostly shut off Lake Erie. At least from the heaviest lake snows. Off of Lake Ontario, between Rochester and Oswego, we still have many areas offshore exceeding 40 degrees. The shoreline may be starting to freeze up but not out deep!

Here is the lake effect tonight and into tomorrow. Expect snow to be heavy at times but only in localized areas. We do not expect this snow to be widespread.

Now the storm that is coming after that one. After bitter cold Friday Night and through Saturday, Sunday Night could turn out to be a big night for ALL of Upstate Snow Nation! Because almost everyone will get good snows! The bad news: Since it will be so cold, this snow will be dry and fine. So if you are in an area that does not have much protection from the wind, don’t count on it being too much to sled on. A few heavy tugs on the throttle and you will probably be pulling bare ground! I will produce the SNOWFALL MAP for this Sunday/Monday winter storm, tomorrow, on Upstate Snow!

After that, do you want to ask about the longer range? Do you even want to think about it? Uh huh. Yeah. I thought so! Sorry if that has you down. Or up!

With the big generational storm getting set to hit where we are located this weekend (well south of NY) I am just putting it out there we will try to have as many updates as possible. Whenever we can.