When you take a look at the short range, the medium range, and the long range forecasts for Upstate NY: ALL OF THEM DO NOT LOOK GOOD. It’s lots of sunshine. It’s mostly dry weather. It’s above normal temperatures. It’s looking likely this pattern will last until at least Columbus Day now based on the latest 3-4 week forecast.
Yep. This is the time of year I don’t like. Just because the forecast just stinks for those of us who want some colder mornings, cooler days and the threat for below normal temperatures. Not above all the time. We are going to have to be patient and wait. And keep waiting. And waiting some more. In recent years these very long warm spells have become much more common in September, and especially in the 4th Quarter of the year, October, November and especially December. You do not want to know how the last 30 years, especially the last 15 have turned out there. With the exception of winters like 2018-19, 2017-18, 2013-14, 2008-09, 2003-04, 2002-03 and 2000-01, those seven are the only ones in which we have had a good start to the season. Truly 2017 was the last real snowy Christmas and New Year period. If we get skunked again this December, we are approaching a full decade one year from now. Yikes!
So lets look at the (ugh) forecast for the next week. Low clouds and fog every morning, especially early. Then mostly sunny in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be in the 70s in most areas. In the lower elevations 80 or better is certainly likely. As we get to SNOW BASH weekend, temperatures will cool a little bit. There is also a slight chance of showers, but for the most part, partly to mostly sunny skies will continue.
After Snow Bash, temperatures will continue to be warm. Forecast will look mostly dry. Drought conditions will continue to expand across Upstate NY and much of the Northeast.
What does this mean in the long term? Pretty much no early season surprises like in 2000, 1987, or in the 1960s or 1970s. It has been a long time and that trend doesn’t look to change. Just ride the wave we are on now. Pray for cooler and better days ahead.
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
September 14, 2025
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