The rain showers have been around Upstate NY for the better part of 24 hours now as of this writing (830 AM Thursday 10/23). It is still way too warm to talk about snow, even in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks. Unless you are talking “high peaks” territory. But things will change as we head through the next 24-72 hours from now. Standby!
It all depends on what model you are looking at here. Each one is putting out its different solution as to what will happen tonight, tomorrow, tomorrow night or Saturday. Even Sunday we have a big “whoops” on one of the computer models. In the short run, especially within 84 hours, there is not usually this much spread in them. But with borderline temperatures, sometimes this is what happens. As a result of this we will not put up a snowfall map for a second day in a row. Besides the snowfall amounts being too low, we have way too much of an area to bust it on. Please understand.
For the most part your lake effect will carry from north to south through this afternoon and into tonight. During the day tomorrow expect the lake effect to range between 280 and 300 degrees which should make Central NY and the Mohawk Valley possible for whatever this thing brings. A cold rain is near definite. Not a persistent rain but on and off showers more than anything else. The models want to extend this not just past tomorrow night but through most of Saturday now as well. With Saturday being just 2 days away, plan on it being not so good.
BUT WAIT! THERE IS MORE!
This is the GFS Model for Sunday. This is within 84 hours. The GFS is notorious for putting out bad solutions past 84-96 hours, especially 144 hours, but not within 84-96 hours. This is a rarity. And it is showing a decent area of snow on Sunday across the southern Adirondacks, the best that we have seen. But all the other models are saying “partly to mostly sunny with highs at or above 50” that day. So what gives?
We don’t know! If someone can figure this out, let us know! Rich has been doing this 14 seasons for Upstate Snow and 28 as a Meteorologist and still can’t figure this stuff out…
NEXT WEEK
The big storm blows on in from the 29th through the 31st. It is getting closer to the range to where we would feel better discussing it. A few more days on that. One thing that we am super looking forward to in the end of October and especially into November? Talking more about snow possibilities!
ONE PLACE I WANT YOU TO BOOKMARK AS WE WATCH THE SNOWS START TO COME ON IN:
NORTHERN CHATEAU!
https://www.northernchateau.com/w/webcam1.html
This page will bring you to most of the webcams in Upstate NY that have SNOWFALL WITH THEM! Don’t leave home without it!
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
October 23, 2025
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