Thank you very much for the HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF HITS to Upstate Snow.com and to the HUNDREDS OF NEW FOLKS that are on board! Welcome! Glad you are here and I hope you enjoy our ride through the winter of 2025-26. And beyond!
We have not one threat for snow to fly, but two threats! One will be tonight. The second will be Wednesday Night. On both of these systems, only if you are NORTH of the Thruway AND over 1,000 feet will you stand the best chance of finding something more white than wet. The graphics below are of the GFS, the most aggressive model for snow.
Monday Night it gets just cold enough for a changeover to snow in the Adirondacks only. In this case even 1,500 to 2,000 feet would be generous here. Above 2,000 should be a given but below that, especially below 1,500 feet, I am thinking like a majority of the short term and long term models, go with rain showers and temps in the 30s to low 40s here.
Wednesday Night is when most of it comes through Upstate NY, particularly in the higher elevations of the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks. Here is the best chance during this week of seeing any additional snowfall. Even so, it will not be that much. Remember we are playing the elevation game here! Over 1,000 feet I would look at a dusting to 2″ with more towards the high peaks. Keep an eye on Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning. That’s my next TROUBLE spot!
Friday afternoon we start with snow in the Adirondacks, but, look!!! The atmosphere is just too warm. We are looking rainy and temperatures in the 40s, to even 50s in the lower elevations. Definitely WAY TOO WARM for snow. Even the high peaks will probably get hit with rain on this one, especially as the warmer air floods on in ahead of this storm.
LOOKING AHEAD
It is looking BELOW NORMAL in both the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day outlooks. With highs generally in the 40s and lows in the 20s at this time of year, it doesn’t mean below freezing weather 24/7. Yet. However, we are into the time of year to whenever ANYTHING is below normal between now and March, you can mention SNOW with authority and more often than not you will be correct! Not 100% of the time, but WAY more than you will with it ABOVE NORMAL. So with the STORM 4 which is really the 11/10 storm, one week from today, that looks to have some staying power and a good setup for lake effect snow behind it. This could easily with normal temperatures falling and snow starting to hit not just the highest elevations anymore, to where, we start to get some traction on snow! Hang on folks! It’s going to be interesting!
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