Next storm on deck with high pressure to the NE of us will set the stage for snow or mixed precip to start, especially higher elevations and areas east of I-81… but it will changeover to rain in most areas by Sunday night into Monday AM. What is on the snow map will likely melt or turn to “glop” but there will be just enough we think tomorrow to where it will whiten the ground in many areas, even if only for a few hours before melting, and with some sleet and freezing rain mix possible, could lead to some temporarily slick roads. This is nothing major but more of a heads up than anything else. If anything the model trends keep pushing the storm track N which would mean even our minor forecast could be optimistic. But we’ve also seen where situations like this can overperform and you could end up with a quick 2, 3, 4 inches over the Adirondacks. Once the cold front blows through Monday the air behind it is colder but somewhat dry. You see in the last frames where some lake effect tries to get going Monday night off Lakes Erie and Ontario. If the meso models continue to show and we see verification with good lake streamers Monday morning, we’ll put out a morning blog then and a snowmap for snowbelt areas… not high on it at this time.
We haven’t had too much to get excited about this November… the snows earlier this week that overperformed were a bonus. And after this, heading into Thanksgiving and the holiday weekend, what has been a very cold and snowy time the last several years… looks like a mild and generally snow free affair for Upstate NY this time around.
Looking into December, we need cold before we need snow. Until this jet stream slows down, until we get some blocking up in Greenland and until the Polar Vortex decides to come even remotely close to us, I’m not seeing a lot to get excited about yet. It once again may be a slow start to winter. We’ll be looking for the signs cold, snow, and rideable conditions when the trails do open in later December and try not to offer false hope… but patience is the key word here.
Please stay safe and healthy this Thanksgiving week.
Best,
Rich
