GOOD MORNING! We have snow that has returned to the higher elevations of Upstate NY this morning. This is confined to the Tug Hill, Adirondacks and North Country and above 1000′. Nothing south of the Thruway is showing up from what we can see. For now. This system will roll across the state today and exit the region tonight.
WORTH
BIG MOOSE
STAR LAKE
This is from Worth on the Tug Hill. This is from Big Moose in the Adirondacks. And this is from Star Lake up in the North Country in St. Lawrence County. As you can see there is enough to show and enough to say HEY IT IS SNOWING THIS MORNING, but with this being Thanksgiving Week, we have finally reached the week of the year in which in some winters, the snowfall sticks and stays for several weeks to a few months! In a few cases, March or April, but not all of them. In only a few cases over the last 100 years have we gone the distance across the entire field wire to wire. Most years we don’t get that shot. We have been nowhere even close to this, particularly last year.
We know this gets out of here this evening with little to no additional accumulations. We know tomorrow is Partly Sunny. We know Tuesday is cloudy with rain developing. We know Wednesday is supposed to be a windy, warm, and rainy day.
THEN THANKSGIVING ARRIVES. AND SO DOES THE COLD AND THE SNOW!
7 AM on Turkey Day. Good Morning and Gobble Gobble! We look to have bands of lake effect snow already going over Lake Erie and developing over Lake Ontario. It will continue to be breezy to windy across the state whether or not you are seeing snow. But based on the model trends, they are getting better for colder and snowier conditions on Thanksgiving Day, especially Midday and the Afternoon. On Thanksgiving Night, another reinforcing trough will come through and this will help to aim the snow bands from a WSW direction more to a WNW direction by…
BLACK FRIDAY
7 AM. The height of bargain shopping. Everywhere. With snow showers and possibly heavy lake effect squalls from the Capital Region, through the Utica/Rome to Syracuse areas. And to the south of Buffalo. Several additional inches of accumulations are possible. It is not likely or imminent. Yet. We are still 5 days away! Be patient. I know you are nervous!
FRIDAY NIGHT
10 PM The band of snows sinks farther to the south and west as this band of snow is looking to go more of in a northwesterly wind flow. This will also continue to bring in tons of cold air from Canada, and that cold air looks to last the rest of Thanksgiving Day Weekend. Look for highs in the 20s and 30s. Lows way below freezing.
SNOW TOTALS?
Not yet! Thanksgiving Day is 4 days away now, Black Friday is Day 5. Since yesterday we are not extending the timing of this event but we are moving up the start of it more into Thanksgiving Day. And that means Tuesday morning will definitely be the accumulation map time. I will give the disclaimer that “several inches are likely in areas where the most intense lake effect snow bands persist”. Where do they? Who knows! If anything that looks even more variant than it did yesterday. We’ll look at more model runs and give you another idea tomorrow before THE SNOW MAP comes Tuesday.
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Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
November 23, 2025
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