THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS WASTING NO TIME ON THIS EVENT FOR THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEY ALREADY HAVE THE WINTER STORM WATCHES POSTED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF BUFFALO (SOUTHTOWNS AND SOUTHERN TIER) PLUS AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WE STILL DO NOT KNOW WHO WILL GET WHAT OUT OF THIS. WE KNOW THIS WILL NOT BE A NOVEMBER 2014 EVENT FOR BUFFALO. NOT EVEN CLOSE. HOWEVER, A MUCH LESSER EVENT CAN STILL DO DAMAGE ESPECIALLY WHEN IT IS FALLING AT THE WORST WEEK OF THE YEAR. THIS ONE! SO HERE IT IS! LOOK OUT!!!
Ok we know today is fine and tonight we cloud up. It starts to rain tomorrow, the rain peaks tomorrow night with some claps of thunder being possible in this. Yes. We mentioned it. Because we think there is a chance for this given how quickly our developing storm bombs out over the Great Lakes Tuesday Night and into Wednesday. On Wednesday our temperatures shoot well into the 50s, if not to 60 or above for a brief time. That ends as our cold front comes crashing through from west to east during the afternoon Wednesday. Then Wednesday Night and the lake effect comes. Starting over Western NY and over Lake Erie, then getting into areas east of Lake Ontario into Thanksgiving morning.
During the day on Thanksgiving we will have snow showers with locally heavy lake effect squalls. Given the fact that the Great Lakes are still above normal on temperature (though not as bad as last year since this has been a colder than normal month in terms of temperature as opposed to last year), we are not surprised. Still however, we are expecting in the most intense bands of snow at least 1″ per hour of accumulation.
This continues through Thanksgiving Night and into the morning of BLACK FRIDAY! You want to shop? Great! Fly through the lake effect with confidence this time! Because you will have no other choice in it for parts of Upstate NY. During the day Friday and into Friday Night, a secondary reinforcing trough will move through, and this will send the bands of snow farther to the west to east, then more in a northwest to southeast orientation.
The rest of the snows will fall Friday Night to where by Saturday Morning, we are done with this event. We are in the clear. Sunshine with temperatures near freezing with below freezing up north for Saturday. So again since this event starts at the edge of our range (Wednesday Night and Thursday Morning), we can give some idea as to numbers, but we still will not commit to it 100% until tomorrow morning (Tuesday). Guarantee you on that. There is one more thing:
Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. If you have travel plans on Sunday Morning to church or heading home particularly if your plans take you farther than a few miles. You may want to look at this: WIDESPREAD SNOW!!! This is a classic warm air advection pattern for snow. This is one of the easiest forms of snow to predict. Even at 6 to 7 days out I can do it with some level of accuracy. On Sunday I am going to go for 1 to 3 inches of snow with 2 to 5 in more persistent bands. ONLY on this type of snow would we even dare risk a snowfall forecast that much farther out than normal, HOWEVER, do know that the reason why we are making this forecast: Sunday is one of the biggest travel days of the year! Do not even talk to me about what happened to me in Buffalo in 2002 the Sunday of Thanksgiving Weekend (ZACK DOESN’T KNOW… HE WAS NOT EVEN BORN YET! BUT RICH WILL NEVER FORGET IT! A 3 HOUR DRIVE BECAME OVER 9 HOURS!!!). This is showing up on the models the last few runs. So since it is within my 5 to 7 day range for planning, we can vary this going up or down and don’t have to put out a snow map on this one until Black Friday. Or Saturday. Hey, did you ever think we would be this busy in November with snowfalls? Neither did we! Enjoy it!
If you would like to advertise on the site, reach out anytime!
VENMO: @Zman291
CASH APP: #ZACKLUPIA
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
November 24, 2025
Please thank our advertisers on Upstate Snow!
Business Sponsorships
Ohio Ridge Riders
Enjem’s Flooring America
ilsnow.com
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Southern Tug Hill Snow-Riders
Business Members
John Schoff Polaris Memorial Ride
Personal Members
James Andre
Eric Vilovchik
Charles A. Klesse Sr.
