The Morning Blog is brought to you by the Trackside Blazers of Northeast Oneida County (and a touch of Herkimer County as well). The meetings are held September through May, the second Saturday of each month at 9 AM, at the groomer barn along the northbound side of Route 28 in Forestport. The club maintains critical trails between Penn Mountain, Lost Trails, Ohio, and the Town of Webb. Without the over 70 miles of trails that Trackside maintains, riding in big snow country would be so much harder.

Happy New Year early! I have several events to get off to today so this update will be a quick one. I will have a longer POST MORTEM on this lake effect storm between 12/29 and 12/31 for you on the morning blog for tomorrow. But for now this is where I am at.

SNOW PREDICTED                                                            SNOW SO FAR

The areas which I can see I am too high is the Tug Hill proper. It has not hit anywhere near as hard up there. They are going to have to crank the rest of today otherwise I will lose there. Some parts of the Capital Region I actually underperformed on. Believe it or not, the heavy lake effect for the Utica/Rome area through the Syracuse area has verified for the most part! Some areas too high I know but I did get a lot of them. On a big forecast like this, it’s what you want.

For Western NY it’s looking too high on the forecast (the snow amounts are too low). At least as of now. Wondering what is happening with Lake Erie. The rest of NY State is GOOD AND SET. THANK YOU!

So you can see where we have done well and where we have *buzzer* been hit with a foul. We have until the ball drop to make up any of this additional snow. Thank God it is blowing up all over the models, especially the high resolution model for this afternoon and tonight:

4 PM THIS AFTERNOON

BALL DROP (MIDNIGHT)

Here is where and when the worst of the snow hits the region. By the time we get to ball drop you notice the snowfalls are drawing back in coverage. That is because for New Year’s Day and into Friday, these snowfalls will be much more localized with much lesser accumulations. Any snow on that I might not even put up a snow map for.

The first few days of 2026 look actually decent, particularly this weekend with a mix of clouds and sun, to maybe, SOME SUNSHINE?! Wow, that would be awesome to see for the first all in snowmobile weekend for all of Upstate NY! Will there still be some lake effect around? Yes, particularly off of Lake Ontario. But nothing to write home about.

The threat for snow returns to Upstate NY for next week but not until Monday afternoon next week, almost one week out. That’s bordering on the “we are watching” but not 100% on “we are going for it” yet scenario. But I have my eyes on it.

BOTTOM LINE
Let it snow! Have a Happy New Year! Don’t do anything we would not do. And we will see you tomorrow in 2026!