It is looking more likely now for the first actual snows of the 2025-26 season to hit the Adirondacks and possibly the Tug Hill region of New York, starting Thursday Night and lasting through Friday. As in this Friday. As in 3 days from now. This is not a long range “never gonna happen” crap. This is short range, almost to high resolution models, nearly it’s almost ready to snow in Upstate NY stuff!
We have been waiting for this day all along. It is coming about the normal time. Nothing terribly early, although in some years it has come earlier than this. In many years it came later than this. We are almost right down the middle here.
Our next storm system arrives tonight with scattered showers. This becomes more of a steady rain from time to time for both Wednesday and Thursday. Both of those days, we would be leaning towards those being a “washout”. The airmass though is getting colder with a cold vortex and lower temperatures coming overhead by Thursday Night and into Friday. This is the time that we truly need to pay attention here.
The target zone is east of Tug Hill in the western Adirondacks, especially the Old Forge, Stillwater, Inlet and Blue Mountain Lake areas. Here the flow will be persistent Thursday Night and through Friday with cold rain showers. Above 1500 feet it could be just cold enough to change it to SNOW. Yes. We said it. SNOW. If it is just cold enough to change it to snow, it would only be localized and only a dusting to an inch or two at most. It would not be enough to pull out my chart of New York and put up my first snowfall map of the year. At least that is how we see it now.
After that we are in for a dry but normally cool end of October weekend. Any leaves that are left on the trees where you are, enjoy them while you can, because in a few more days, it will be all brown and down. For the next 6 months. At least.
Next week, especially towards Halloween and beyond we have more big storm systems on the maps. Because we are looking beyond 7 days here and out to 14+days, we will take what we see with a grain of salt. We will just say that this grain of salt we are looking at is good right now. We are liking the overall pattern changes heading into November.
That’s the way we see things now. Check back in tomorrow. You will want to!
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
October 21, 2025
Please thank our advertisers on Upstate Snow!
Business Sponsorship
Ohio Ridge Riders
Enjem’s Flooring America
ilsnow.com
Saratoga Snowmobile Association
Southern Tug Hill Snow-Riders
Business Member
John Schoff Polaris Memorial Ride
Personal Member
Charles A. Klesse Sr.
