It’s storming over Upstate NY today. After one last day in the 70s yesterday, it’s time to say goodbye to them, potentially for the rest of the season until Spring 2026. At least that’s what we said today! Rain will continue throughout the day, tapering off from west to east across Upstate NY this afternoon and particularly tonight. We catch a break with a little sunshine in the morning tomorrow but it does not last for long.
Our next system comes racing in, bringing showers from west to east in the afternoon and evening tomorrow. Then it turns into more of a persistent and consistent rain Wednesday and heading into Thursday. Along with much colder air that’s moving in at the upper levels. Could this be enough to set off the first flakes of the year across the Tug Hill and the Adirondacks? The chances are not zero, but they are not high either.
It’s over a week out. But I just had to show the change that should be coming towards the end of the month like near Halloween. It won’t be 75-80 like last year. If anything, if the position of this system turns out to be accurate, we could be in for a period of warmth at the end of the month with the deep southerly flow out ahead of this monster.
Make no mistake about it. This storm is likely to develop in the next 7 days, and in days 7-10, turn into a large cutoff storm over the Great Lakes. Where exactly it does this will have a huge impact on our weather. Again, as mentioned above, a surge of warmth would be likely out ahead of this thing, but lets say it moves father east than predicted. If we can get that over Upstate NY, it would mean a total change of plans! That’s exactly what it shows for Halloween 2025.
It would mean colder temperatures with rain at the least! And depending on how lucky we could get… well… we will just say that the Buffalo area and Western NY have the best shot at this. And this is in the long range where forecast accuracy is not anywhere near as good as within the period of 3-7 days. We are just letting you all know what we are looking at.
The fact we are starting to put up at least possibilities of **** has me happy this morning. Enjoy your week!
Zack and Rich Lupia
Upstate Snow
October 20, 2025
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